Bold claim: the Detroit Lions expose a uniquely stubborn challenge for the Rams’ offense. The Rams have pivoted to a heavy reliance on 13 personnel—one back, three tight ends—a sharp turn from the McVay era when 13 personnel was a rarity (just 84 uses in nine seasons). This season, they rank at the top of the NFL in 13-personnel snaps, tallying 170 plays (about 21.4% of all plays). By comparison, the league average hovers around 5.25%.
Last weekend versus the Arizona Cardinals, that figure jumped to 60%. What drove the shift? Two things aligned: the Rams’ offensive trend toward more 13 personnel, and a strategic move to protect their big lead by milking the clock with the rushing game, easing the load on their prolific receivers.
Head coach Sean McVay explained that the Cardinals’ nickel-heavy defense—five defensive backs—left the Rams confident they could exploit the run. He praised the execution of Coleman Shelton at center, the offensive line, quarterback Matthew Stafford, and the tight ends and receivers for recognizing opportunities and delivering efficient early runs. The result: 249 rushing yards, 6.9 yards per carry, and three rushing touchdowns against Arizona. Per SumerSports, the Rams sit in the top tier of the league for both passing (0.34 EPA per pass, eighth) and rushing efficiency (0.13 EPA per rush, fourth) when operating out of 13 personnel.
Detroit head coach Dan Campbell identifies another advantage of heavy 13 personnel: predictability. In 13 personnel, defenses typically present base fronts with four defensive backs, making it clearer what to expect. Campbell notes that teams often know what defenses and fronts they’ll face, and having versatile tight ends provides a flexible attack. In other words, 13 personnel can pressure defenses into a simpler, more predictable package that the offense can manipulate.
But the Rams’ opponent in this matchup, the Lions, isn’t buying the usual drama. Detroit deploys heavy, base formations more than any other team and deploys three linebackers frequently, trusting their personnel to stop the run and defend the pass even when pressed with extra tight ends. Sharp Football notes the Lions spend the least time in subpackages (nickel) in the league—around 35%—which they argue gives them the confidence to handle heavier personnel with a three-linebacker approach.
Lions linebacker Jack Campbell stressed that 13 personnel often presents a limited menu for defenses, since many teams don’t run it often. In his view, base defenses and three linebackers are the default against 13, so the Rams’ variant usage—often blending 12 or even 11 personnel concepts with a talented, versatile tight end group—may not fundamentally derail Detroit. Campbell did acknowledge the challenge but said Detroit’s schemes and personnel are well-suited to counter it.
With that in mind, a prudent game plan for the Rams could involve dialing back 13 personnel against Detroit, leaning into the more familiar 11 personnel (three wide receivers). The Rams still employ 11 personnel at a strong rate (about 66.8%), though their efficiency with those sets on the ground is lower (0.03 EPA per rush, 17th in the league). If the Lions can sustain a stout run defense in base packages, they may force a more uncomfortable situation for the Rams and create a real path to an upset on the road.
Bottom line: Detroit’s base-centric approach and readiness for multiple looks could neutralize the Rams’ 13-personnel emphasis. If the Lions can slow the Rams’ rushing attack and force a heavier reliance on 11 personnel, they’ll not only challenge Los Angeles’ game plan but also seize a potential breakthrough win on the road.
